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Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks by Norman Fenton, Martin Neil

By Norman Fenton, Martin Neil

Even if many Bayesian community (BN) purposes are actually in daily use, BNs haven't but accomplished mainstream penetration. targeting useful real-world challenge fixing and version construction, in place of algorithms and idea, probability evaluate and determination research with Bayesian Networks explains how you can comprise wisdom with information to improve and use (Bayesian) causal versions of chance that offer robust insights and higher choice making.

Provides all instruments essential to construct and run real looking Bayesian community models
Supplies huge instance types in accordance with genuine probability evaluate difficulties in a variety of program domain names supplied; for instance, finance, defense, platforms reliability, legislations, and more
Introduces all priceless arithmetic, chance, and statistics as needed
The e-book first establishes the fundamentals of chance, chance, and construction and utilizing BN versions, then is going into the designated functions. The underlying BN algorithms seem in appendices instead of the most textual content on the grounds that there's no have to comprehend them to construct and use BN versions. holding the physique of the textual content freed from intimidating arithmetic, the booklet offers pragmatic suggestion approximately version development to make sure types are equipped efficiently.

A devoted web site,, comprises executable models of the entire types defined, workouts and labored suggestions for all chapters, PowerPoint slides, quite a few different assets, and a unfastened downloadable reproduction of the AgenaRisk software program.

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Extra info for Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

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Two candidate drugs (called Precision and Oomph respectively) are considered. Neither has shown any side effects and their cost is the same. For each drug we conduct a study to test the null hypothesis ‘taking the drug leads to no weight loss’. 5 lb. ◾◾ For drug Oomph the mean weight loss is 20 lb and every one of the 100 subjects in the study loses between 10 lb and 30 lb. Since the objective of weight loss drugs is to lose as much weight as possible, any rational, intuitive review of these results would lead us to recommend drug Oomph over Precision.

More men than women were given the drug. Because of the men’s higher natural recovery rate, overall more people in the trial recovered when given the drug than when given the placebo. 21. In the initial model we only have information about whether the drug is taken to help us determine whether a subject recovers. The revised causal model tells us that we need information about the subject’s sex in addition to whether they take the drug to help us better determine whether the subject recovers. The final model introduces the further dependence, which is relevant for this particular case study namely that sex influences drug taken because men are much more likely in this study to have been given the drug than women.

Approximately 1 in 3 e. Approximately 1 in 2 If you have not already seen the puzzle then you may be surprised to know that the ‘correct’ answer here is e (in fact, the chances are slightly better than 1 in 2). You don’t need to know why at this point; a proper explanation will be provided in Chapter 4. But if you answered a—on the instinctive basis that it is the closest to 23/365—then although you are completely wrong you are at least in good company. It is easily the most common answer. 6. 6 The Monty Hall Problem Let’s Make a Deal, a classic American ’60s game show, hosted by Monty Hall, involved contestants choosing one of three doors.

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